Worked example

Eli Lilly at GIPR

As of the edition of 20 October 2026, Eli Lilly is on route B at GIPR (gastric inhibitory polypeptide receptor), position 12 of 2,016 on that route, with a score of 0.780.

Sources: ClinicalTrials.gov, approval registers, ChEMBL, FDA Orange Book and Purple Book.

Route and score

Route B  Score 0.780

Biology proven in humans0.96
How much the company cares0.91
Room, and a reason to act now0.54

Each part runs from 0 to 1; 0.5 is neutral, and an unknown fact counts as neutral.

What moved the score

Proof in humans at the target+0.294
Took its own drug far in human testing+0.225
Active at the target or its disease area recently+0.183
Trials at the target more often meet than miss their main endpoint+0.167
Few other companies active at the target+0.087
The company’s own follow-on drug-0.044
Why its own drug stopped0.000

The facts that decided the route

  • Does the company have its own row at this target, rather than being counted under a drug that acts on many targets? The company has its own row at this target As of 20 October 2026.
  • Has the company not been dissolved without a successor? The company still exists or has a successor As of 24 September 2026.
  • Does the company have a marketed drug at this target? The company has a marketed drug at this target As of 13 May 2022.
  • Does the company have no approved follow-on drug at this target? The company has no approved follow-on of its own As of 13 May 2022.
  • Is the protein the drug acts on identified, and not only a complex it belongs to? The protein the drug acts on is on record, not only its complex As of 20 October 2026.
  • Does a source say which of the drug's many targets it is designed for? The target the drug is designed for is established As of 20 October 2026.

The drugs

DrugStatusFurthest phaseTrialsUS protection
TirzepatideMarketedPhase 4195Patent ends: 14 June 2039
RetatrutideActivePhase 334none listed
LY3537021ActivePhase 23none listed

The trials behind it

TrialDrugPhaseStatusYearsParticipantsResult
NCT06901349TirzepatidePhase 2Withdrawn2025 to 20250No results posted
The registry records: “Study terminated for strategic business reasons”
NCT07817875TirzepatidePhase 3Not yet recruiting2026 to 2032150No results posted
NCT07803744TirzepatidePhase 1Recruiting2026 to 202618No results posted
NCT07438444TirzepatidePhase 4Active not recruiting2026 to 2027344No results posted
NCT07357415RetatrutidePhase 3Active not recruiting2026 to 2028600No results posted
NCT07299084TirzepatidePhase 1Active not recruiting2026 to 202640No results posted
NCT07169851LY3537021Phase 2Recruiting2025 to 2027204No results posted
NCT07247084TirzepatidePhase 4Recruiting2025 to 20323,000No results posted
NCT07232719RetatrutidePhase 3Active not recruiting2025 to 2027250No results posted
NCT07165028RetatrutidePhase 3Recruiting2025 to 20324,500No results posted
NCT06937086TirzepatidePhase 3Recruiting2025 to 2028350No results posted
NCT06937099TirzepatidePhase 3Recruiting2025 to 2028290No results posted

All companies at GIPR · Eli Lilly’s page